Nearly one in five U.S. families was behind on loan payments at the end of 2025, a sharp rise from about 12% in the prior survey and the highest level since the Federal Reserve’s 2010 measure. The central bank’s latest Survey of Consumer Finances finds that household repayment trouble has returned to territory last recorded around the Great Recession, even as median family income and wealth edged higher. The warning is about mounting strain across households, not a claim that another recession has begun.
Delinquencies climb to a 2010 high
The share of families behind on loan payments increased from about 12% in the previous survey to nearly 20% at the end of 2025. That is a rise of roughly two-thirds, leaving repayment problems at their highest point in the Federal Reserve’s survey series since 2010.
More severe arrears also became more common: over 8% of families were at least two months behind, compared with 5% in 2022. The figures suggest the deterioration is not limited to households only briefly missing a payment; a larger group is falling further behind.
Why the comparison with the Great Recession matters
The comparison is anchored in the Federal Reserve’s 2010 survey, which captured families as the United States emerged from the Great Recession. That downturn lasted from December 2007 to June 2009 and followed a collapse in the subprime mortgage market that spread through major financial institutions.
Unemployment reached 10% at one point during that crisis. Today’s survey establishes that payment difficulties have returned to a level last seen in 2010, but it does not show that the causes or broader economic conditions are identical. The distinction matters: delinquency is a household warning sign, not by itself proof of a financial crisis.
Heavy payment burdens are spreading
The Fed also found that families devoting more than 40% of their income to debt payments made up 8.6% of households, up from 6.5% in 2022. That share is the highest since 2013, adding evidence that some borrowers have less room in their budgets after making required payments.
The burden measure helps explain why higher arrears matter even while the economy continued to grow during the survey period. Inflation was at levels not seen since the early 1980s, and rising payment pressure can leave families more exposed when expenses increase or income falls. The survey records conditions through 2025 rather than predicting what will happen next.
Rising averages conceal uneven finances
Inflation-adjusted median family income rose 7%, but average income fell 6%. The difference reflects uneven outcomes: the middle household improved, while the average was pulled down by declines among some groups. The Fed said income inequality narrowed slightly between surveys, but the change did not eliminate substantial gaps.
Inflation-adjusted average net worth increased 7% to $1.24 million, while median net worth rose only 2% to $215,900. The median is a better guide to the midpoint family than the average, which can be lifted by very wealthy households. The top income group’s median net worth rose 31%, while median net worth for families in the bottom quarter of income fell 6% and their average net worth dropped 4%.
Some groups face sharper setbacks
Age and education also shaped the results. Income fell 25% for families aged 35 to 44, which the Federal Reserve attributed to lower capital-gains income. Families aged 75 or older recorded particularly strong income gains, so the overall figures mask sharply different experiences across generations.
Families with a college degree had 1.9 times the median income of those with some college and nearly three times their median net worth. The Fed also reported falling median and average income for Black non-Hispanic families, Asian families and households near the top of the usual income and net-worth distributions. Combined with rising arrears, those differences make the headline delinquency figure a broad warning, not a description of every family’s finances.
Takeaway: By the end of 2025, loan-payment arrears had returned to their highest level since 2010, while rising debt burdens and uneven wealth gains left many households under pressure.
References
- PBS News — “National debt nears $40 trillion: How we got here and why it matters”
- J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S — “A “monster?” A “time bomb?” How to see the real danger from U.S. debt”
- pgpf.org — “Our National Debt”
- Penn Wharton Budget Model — “When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?”
