China’s September Exports and Imports Beat Forecasts

China’s exports rose 36.3% year on year in September and imports increased 31%, both beating forecasts by a wide margin. The export gain was the fastest since February, while imports grew at their quickest pace since June. The figures point to powerful trade flows even as weak domestic demand remains a concern.

Both sides of trade outpace forecasts

Exports, measured in U.S. dollar terms, grew faster than the 25.5% predicted in a Reuters poll. Imports also surpassed expectations, rising 31% against a forecast of 24.5%; the increase accelerated from 28.2% in August.

The simultaneous jump matters because it shows strength in both overseas sales and purchases from abroad, rather than an export surge alone. Earlier this year, exports and imports each recorded their fastest growth in five years, and September extended that momentum.

AI demand lifts component shipments

Demand for China-made parts used in data centres supporting artificial intelligence helped drive exports. Integrated circuit board export value surged 136% from a year earlier in September, while the number of units shipped rose just 1%, a gap that points to higher values per unit as well as stronger demand.

AI-related demand and rising prices for core products also supported import growth. The trade figures therefore reflect more than shipment volumes: the value of goods moving through China’s supply chains has risen sharply in some important categories.

Record monthly surplus amid weak domestic demand

China’s September trade surplus reached $133.5 billion, a record monthly high. Exports to the United States grew nearly 39.6%, faster than overall exports, and contributed to the monthly surplus reaching its highest level since January 2025.

The strength of external trade contrasts with sluggish consumer spending at home. A large surplus can cushion pressure on policymakers as they pursue this year’s growth goal, but it also draws greater attention to the balance between China’s export capacity and domestic demand. Hao Zhou, head of research and chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings, said the surplus underscored the external sector’s strength despite domestic-demand concerns.

Trade ties and export mix shift

Trade conditions with the United States have shown some signs of stabilisation. Last month, the two countries announced plans to roll back tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods from each side and extend a broader trade truce by two months, to January.

China’s car exports also climbed: shipments rose 56.3% in September to 1.18 million vehicles, while their value increased 62%. Separately, the European Union announced last week that China had agreed to halve exports of hybrid-powered cars to the bloc after high-level trade talks in Beijing.

Uneven import and commodity trends

Not all import categories shared the overall acceleration. The volume of crude oil imports fell by double digits for a sixth consecutive month, even though their value rose for the first time since May. Crude oil and natural gas import volumes have both declined since the start of the year.

Trade flows also varied by partner and product. Imports from Malaysia, Germany and the United Kingdom fell over the first three quarters, while rare-earth and fertilizer export volumes dropped amid export controls and stockpiling; fertilizer imports surged. These divergences suggest the headline growth rates mask very different conditions across sectors.

Takeaway: September’s trade boom was broad in headline terms, but its drivers and effects differed sharply across products, prices and trading partners.