Anthropic’s Nasdaq IPO Faces Fresh Market Hurdles

Anthropic’s potential Nasdaq IPO faces fresh investor resistance after its prospectus arrived during a week of market concern about the cost of the AI buildout. The company disclosed an $80 billion net loss for the first half of the year and large computing commitments, while results from key partners Microsoft, Google and Amazon added pressure to the investment case.

Partner results sharpen doubts

Microsoft, Google and Amazon reported quarterly results within days of Anthropic’s prospectus. Each company’s capital-spending figure or forecast came in below analysts’ estimates, renewing questions about whether the industry can sustain its infrastructure push and how it will be financed.

Microsoft cut its capital-spending forecast for the year to $170 billion from $175 billion. Alphabet kept guidance of up to $205 billion, while Amazon reiterated a forecast of roughly $220 billion. Their cloud businesses still grew faster than analysts expected, and revenue in Google’s cloud business more than doubled from a year earlier.

The market reaction was uneven. Amazon reported negative free cash flow for a second consecutive quarter, with an outflow of $42.4 billion over the trailing 12 months. Google reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion; its shares fell almost 13% on Thursday. Microsoft remained cash-flow positive at $18.6 billion, but that figure had fallen significantly for a second straight quarter. The company also announced plans to raise $25 billion in bonds.

Compute costs are part of the IPO test

Anthropic depends on computing capacity from Amazon, Google and SpaceX, and also uses neocloud providers as it expands. That reliance puts financing conditions across the AI infrastructure chain in view for prospective shareholders. Neoclouds such as CoreWeave and Nebius are facing higher borrowing costs and fewer lenders as they pursue their own expansion plans.

Anthropic’s prospectus disclosed hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of compute commitments and more than 90 pages of risk factors. Investors are also waiting for the company’s third-quarter financials. The filing’s disclosures will therefore be weighed against both its growth prospects and the cost of securing the computing power needed to pursue them.

Strong demand remains a counterweight. Microsoft, Google and Amazon all reported cloud growth above analysts’ expectations. Oracle, another major investor in AI data centres, said it would limit additional fundraising in coming years to $20 billion and expected to become cash-flow positive in the second half of its next fiscal year.

Investors still have to price the risks

Anthropic is seeking a public listing in a market unsettled by technology spending and weak share performance. The Nasdaq Composite recorded its first three-week losing streak since March after falling 2.9% on Friday. Semiconductor shares also came under pressure after Intel issued a weak forecast.

The broader IPO market has been largely frozen since SpaceX’s record offering in June. Oura, Firmus and Solidigm have postponed or abandoned IPO plans, while Nscale and SB Energy have not updated their prospectuses in weeks. That backdrop raises the stakes for Anthropic’s investor meetings, where the company will need to explain its financial risks and establish a price investors will accept.

Potential buyers must weigh the prospect of a major AI business against losses, infrastructure commitments and the funding needs of its partners. The company’s public-market debut is not assured by its prospectus: investors still need to judge the disclosures, assess demand and decide what price they are willing to pay.

Roadshow is the next test

Anthropic’s roadshow is where it will gauge investor demand, set an offer price and allocate shares. Its third-quarter financials remain a key item for investors awaiting a fuller view of the company’s performance beyond the first half of the year.

The timing and final terms will depend on that process and on market conditions. The immediate next step is Anthropic’s investor roadshow, where the company must make its case against a market newly focused on the cost of AI expansion.